What real-money prediction markets imply about Israel's 27 October 2026 election, the race for Prime Minister and the next government, compared with the TV polls.
Eizenkot holds the lead for Prime Minister at 46%
Down 0.5 points in a week. Netanyahu is second at 32% (-5). "Likud wins <20 seats" moved from 23.9% to 15.4% this week. $386K traded on the PM race in 24h.
The dial shows the chance the market gives the front-runner of being the next Prime Minister. Under 35% is a long shot, over 65% a favourite. Every candidate's own odds follow. Photos: Polymarket.
The chance the market gives each candidate, the change from 7 days ago in points, and the money traded on each since the market opened. $45.5M traded on the race in all, $386K of it in the last 24h.
HaMiluimnikim: no seat market, polls 4.0
Expected seats from each party's Polymarket seat markets, rounded to whole seats; hover a dot or a party for the figure before rounding. Hatched: fewer than 4 seats, which no party can actually win, because 4 is the minimum for entering the Knesset. Such a figure is an average of two outcomes: staying out (no seats) and getting in (4 or more). Parties with no seat market are listed with their poll average and not drawn. Ra'am and HaReshima HaMeshutefet are counted together as the Arab parties, toward neither side's 61, here and in the poll rows alike. * The parties' expected seats add up to 123.2, more than the 120 there are, because each party's market is priced separately. They are scaled down to 120 here.
The yes/no markets with at least $20,000 traded on the question itself, five at most. Odds are the implied chance of Yes.
| Question | Odds | vs 7d ago | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out as PM by end of 2026 | 38% | -1.5 | $2.7M |
| Election held on schedule (27 Oct) | 92% | -0.7 | $49K |
| Likud wins fewer than 32 seats | 93% | +0.4 | $28K |
| Trump endorses Likud | 11% | -0.5 | $24K |
Largest 7-day moves in markets with $10K or more traded, then the largest positions and trades. "Traded" is the total since the market opened, not the week. Wallets are anonymous; we report patterns, never identities.
No market with $10K or more traded moved this week.
Trades of $10,000 or more in the last 30 days, by the direction they push each candidate's odds: buying Yes or selling No pushes up, buying No or selling Yes pushes down. Money on one side is not a forecast, and an order split into smaller fills is not counted.
| Candidate | Odds | Large trades | Pushing up | Pushing down | Net | Largest account |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eizenkot | 46% | 4 2 accounts | $27K | $20K | +$7K | 63% of the money pushing up |
| Netanyahu | 32% | 27 15 accounts | $354K | $135K | +$219K | 49% of the money pushing up |
| Bennett | 14% | 3 3 accounts | $11K | $24K | -$12K | 51% of the money pushing down |
Largest recent trades of $10,000+ in the Prime Minister markets and other markets with $50K+ traded. Wallets are anonymous; we report patterns, never identities. Positions priced at 95 cents or more are left out as near-certainties.
Wallets we have traced from public records: Polymarket profiles, chain and bridge data, and press reports. Wallets that cash out to one place or fund each other are counted as one actor. Pseudonyms and published handles only; we never name a person.
Geopolitics specialist since February 2026 with about $4.7M realized, mostly on US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine deal markets. Also holds Yes "Netanyahu out by 31 December".
Email-login account with no username, created 8 January 2026. Put about $190K on Yes Netanyahu and No Eizenkot on 28 and 29 September through Polymarket's fiat on-ramp, briefly moving Netanyahu from 29 to 34 cents. The largest pro-Netanyahu holder; no chain trail behind it.
Sports and world-politics trader, about $2M realized (World Cup, Brazil, US Senate). Holds No Netanyahu, Yes Yashar to win most seats, No Likud.
Named by Haaretz as a large anti-Netanyahu bettor. No Netanyahu is its only open position.
Five Polymarket accounts (dromedaryy, coali10, tetrominos, steeplejack, solasagna) cash out to one wallet and are funded from Hyperliquid trading profits. The operator posts publicly as the prediction-markets trader tenadome, active on Polymarket since 2022, and opens a fresh account every couple of months. Counted here as one actor.
Named by Haaretz as a large anti-Netanyahu bettor. Geopolitics and macro trader, about $1.3M realized; also holds Yes Eizenkot and Yes Bennett.
Named 25xp when Haaretz (30 July 2026) flagged it as a suspected insider: created on 7 April, put $18K on that day's US-Iran ceasefire market at 4 cents and cashed out $218K, then returned in June to buy Netanyahu on dips. Renamed "The-insider-formerly-known-as-25xp" after the coverage. Funded from Ethereum wallets held since 2021; it sold most of the ceasefire position before the announcement, which argues against certain knowledge. Identity unknown.
Second pro-Netanyahu account named by Haaretz. Created 20 May 2026; its only market is Yes Netanyahu.
Describes itself in its Polymarket bio as Miami and Tel Aviv, business financing, Israeli politics "far right". Holds Yes Netanyahu and Yes Lieberman.
High-frequency esports gambler (Dota 2, Russian teams, Duma election). Netanyahu is a side bet, not a thesis.
Created 20 September 2026 with a $68K deposit; its only market is Yes Netanyahu.
| Trader | Market | Side | Price | USD | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
flawfence (Wobbly-Pants)against Netanyahu 0x23d8…0288 Sports and world-politics trader, about $2M realized (World Cup, Brazil, US Senate). Holds No Netanyahu, Yes Yashar to win most seats, No Likud. Value now $102KPays if right $149KBought, 7 days $21K Positions NO Netanyahu next PM $102K · 69¢ Recent $10K+ trades 12 Oct, 02:24 NO Netanyahu 67¢ · $20,697 3 Oct, 14:29 NO sold Netanyahu 66¢ · $20,565 0x23d8…0288 flawfence (Wobbly-Pants) | Netanyahu next PM | NO | 67.0¢ | $20,697 | 12 Oct, 02:24 |
Corny-Grant 0x9360…8dd7 Value now $0Pays if right $0Bought, 7 days $10K Positions Recent $10K+ trades 11 Oct, 03:18 YES Netanyahu 36¢ · $10,000 0x9360…8dd7 | Netanyahu next PM | YES | 36.0¢ | $10,000 | 11 Oct, 03:18 |
Mediocre-Emitterfor Netanyahu 0x63bc…92c5 High-frequency esports gambler (Dota 2, Russian teams, Duma election). Netanyahu is a side bet, not a thesis. Value now $0Pays if right $0Sold, 7 days $15K Positions Recent $10K+ trades 10 Oct, 20:35 YES sold Netanyahu 33¢ · $15,466 0x63bc…92c5 Bettong | Netanyahu next PM | YES sold | 33.0¢ | $15,466 | 10 Oct, 20:35 |
Capital-Kiwi 0xd46b…5dab Value now $0Pays if right $0Sold, 7 days $10K Positions Recent $10K+ trades 8 Oct, 13:58 YES sold Netanyahu 35¢ · $10,425 0xd46b…5dab | Netanyahu next PM | YES sold | 35.0¢ | $10,425 | 8 Oct, 13:58 |
Stable-Armament 0xf559…f462 Value now $0Pays if right $0Bought, 7 days $10K Positions Recent $10K+ trades 7 Oct, 12:53 YES Netanyahu 37¢ · $10,000 0xf559…f462 | Netanyahu next PM | YES | 37.0¢ | $10,000 | 7 Oct, 12:53 |
0xc96b…e1be 0xc96b…e1be Value now $57KPays if right $180KBought, 7 days $68K Positions YES Netanyahu next PM $57K · 32¢ Recent $10K+ trades 5 Oct, 03:36 YES Netanyahu 38¢ · $22,474 5 Oct, 03:36 YES Netanyahu 40¢ · $17,784 5 Oct, 01:48 YES Netanyahu 37¢ · $27,431 0xc96b…e1be | Netanyahu next PM | YES | 38.0¢ | $22,474 | 5 Oct, 03:36 |
0xc96b…e1be 0xc96b…e1be Value now $57KPays if right $180KBought, 7 days $68K Positions YES Netanyahu next PM $57K · 32¢ Recent $10K+ trades 5 Oct, 03:36 YES Netanyahu 38¢ · $22,474 5 Oct, 03:36 YES Netanyahu 40¢ · $17,784 5 Oct, 01:48 YES Netanyahu 37¢ · $27,431 0xc96b…e1be | Netanyahu next PM | YES | 40.0¢ | $17,784 | 5 Oct, 03:36 |
0xc96b…e1be 0xc96b…e1be Value now $57KPays if right $180KBought, 7 days $68K Positions YES Netanyahu next PM $57K · 32¢ Recent $10K+ trades 5 Oct, 03:36 YES Netanyahu 38¢ · $22,474 5 Oct, 03:36 YES Netanyahu 40¢ · $17,784 5 Oct, 01:48 YES Netanyahu 37¢ · $27,431 0xc96b…e1be | Netanyahu next PM | YES | 37.0¢ | $27,431 | 5 Oct, 01:48 |
Belated-Counsel-Thingfor Netanyahu 0x752e…d245 Created 20 September 2026 with a $68K deposit; its only market is Yes Netanyahu. Value now $0Pays if right $0Sold, 7 days $23K Positions Recent $10K+ trades 4 Oct, 02:39 YES sold Netanyahu 35¢ · $23,271 0x752e…d245 bibiFTW | Netanyahu next PM | YES sold | 35.0¢ | $23,271 | 4 Oct, 02:39 |
flawfence (Wobbly-Pants)against Netanyahu 0x23d8…0288 Sports and world-politics trader, about $2M realized (World Cup, Brazil, US Senate). Holds No Netanyahu, Yes Yashar to win most seats, No Likud. Value now $102KPays if right $149KBought, 7 days $21K Positions NO Netanyahu next PM $102K · 69¢ Recent $10K+ trades 12 Oct, 02:24 NO Netanyahu 67¢ · $20,697 3 Oct, 14:29 NO sold Netanyahu 66¢ · $20,565 0x23d8…0288 flawfence (Wobbly-Pants) | Netanyahu next PM | NO sold | 66.0¢ | $20,565 | 3 Oct, 14:29 |
Outlandish-Boxspringfor Netanyahu 0x389d…5866 Email-login account with no username, created 8 January 2026. Put about $190K on Yes Netanyahu and No Eizenkot on 28 and 29 September through Polymarket's fiat on-ramp, briefly moving Netanyahu from 29 to 34 cents. The largest pro-Netanyahu holder; no chain trail behind it. Value now $166KPays if right $526KBought, 7 days $17KSold, 7 days $17K Positions YES Netanyahu next PM $166K · 32¢ Recent $10K+ trades 30 Sept, 14:53 YES Netanyahu 35¢ · $17,200 30 Sept, 14:52 NO sold Eizenkot 52¢ · $17,130 0x389d…5866 Outlandish-Boxspring | Netanyahu next PM | YES | 35.0¢ | $17,200 | 30 Sept, 14:53 |
Outlandish-Boxspringfor Netanyahu 0x389d…5866 Email-login account with no username, created 8 January 2026. Put about $190K on Yes Netanyahu and No Eizenkot on 28 and 29 September through Polymarket's fiat on-ramp, briefly moving Netanyahu from 29 to 34 cents. The largest pro-Netanyahu holder; no chain trail behind it. Value now $166KPays if right $526KBought, 7 days $17KSold, 7 days $17K Positions YES Netanyahu next PM $166K · 32¢ Recent $10K+ trades 30 Sept, 14:53 YES Netanyahu 35¢ · $17,200 30 Sept, 14:52 NO sold Eizenkot 52¢ · $17,130 0x389d…5866 Outlandish-Boxspring | Eizenkot next PM | NO sold | 52.0¢ | $17,130 | 30 Sept, 14:52 |
Latest seat polls from three main TV channels, their average, and what Polymarket implies. Bloc rows first: the market figure is the hemicycle count for the same parties, so both sides of a row group the parties the same way. Ra'am and HaReshima HaMeshutefet are counted together as the Arab parties, toward neither side's 61, here and in the poll rows alike. Party rows: mean expected seats, with the range that holds the middle half of the odds. Gap = markets minus poll average. Threshold = chance of at least one seat, from the threshold market.
| Party | Kan 1127.9.2026 | N1222.9.2026 | Ch. 1323.9.2026 | Poll avg | Markets | Gap | Threshold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu bloc | 52 50 51 | 51.0 | 54 | +3 | |||
| Opposition | 52 54 52 | 52.7 | 53 | +0.3 | |||
| Arab parties | 12 12 13 | 12.3 | 13 | +0.7 | |||
| Unaligned | 4 4 4 | 4.0 | - | - | |||
| Yashar (Eizenkot) | 23 23 22 | 22.7 | 23.9 21-26 | +1.2 | - | ||
| Likud | 21 20 18 | 19.7 | 24.2 21-28 | +4.5 | - | ||
| Beyahad (Bennett) | 11 13 11 | 11.7 | 12.7 8-16 | +1 | - | ||
| HaDemokratim | 9 9 11 | 9.7 | 10.2 8-12 | +0.5 | - | ||
| Yisrael Beiteinu | 9 9 8 | 8.7 | 8.0 6-9 | -0.7 | - | ||
| Shas | - 7 7 | 7.0 | 8.3 7-10 | +1.3 | - | ||
| Yahadut HaTorah | - 8 8 | 8.0 | 7.8 7-8 | -0.2 | - | ||
| HaReshima HaMeshutefet | - 7 8 | 7.5 | 7.9 6-9 | +0.4 | - | ||
| Otzma Yehudit | 7 6 7 | 6.7 | 7.9 6-10 | +1.2 | - | ||
| HaTzionut HaDatit | 6 5 6 | 5.7 | 5.3 4-7 | -0.4 | 85% | ||
| Ra'am | - 5 5 | 5.0 | 4.9 4-6 | -0.1 | 95% | ||
| Amcha Yisrael (Winter) | 4 4 5 | 4.3 | 2.1 0-5 | -2.2 | 51% | ||
| HaMiluimnikim (Hendel) | 4 4 4 | 4.0 | - | - | 40% | ||
| Kahol Lavan (Gantz) | 0 0 0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | ||
A dash means the outlet did not publish a figure for that party; 0 means it had the party below the threshold. When one outlet is 5 or more seats away from the other two, its figure is marked and the average without it is shown in brackets.
These odds add up to 100.5%, not 100%: each party is a separate market with its own price, and the excess is the market's margin. They are shown as traded, not rescaled; the seat projection is the one place that is scaled, to 120.
Probability of each seat range from the party's Polymarket seat markets; the darker bar is the highest-priced range. Right: the mean, and under it the range that holds the middle half of the odds (a quarter of the probability lies below it and a quarter above). Range prices can sum above or below 100 (the market's overround); both figures remove it.
Simulated from the TV poll average. For each party, the chance it falls under the electoral threshold, what the markets say, its expected seats, and where its seats go if it misses (or what it takes from others if it passes). Last column: the chance of a 61-seat Netanyahu bloc when the party passes, then when it misses.
| Party | Poll avg | Misses (model) | Misses (markets) | Seats (10th-90th) | Seats shift | Netanyahu 61: passes → misses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahol Lavan (Gantz) | 0 | 81% | - | 0.9 (0-4) | If it passes: Opposition +3, Netanyahu bloc -2, Arab parties -1 | 0.2% → 1% |
| HaMiluimnikim (Hendel) | 4 | 52% | - | 2.4 (0-6) | If it passes: Unaligned +4, Netanyahu bloc -2, Opposition -1, Arab parties -1 | 0.2% → 2% |
| Amcha Yisrael (Winter) | 4.3 | 42% | 50% | 2.9 (0-6) | If it misses: Netanyahu bloc -2, Opposition +2 | 1% → 0.1% |
| Ra'am | 5 | 26% | 5% | 4.1 (0-7) | If it misses: Arab parties -5, Netanyahu bloc +3, Opposition +2 | 0.4% → 2% |
10 other parties each carry under 15% risk and are not listed.
Each party's vote is drawn around its poll average with an error that grows with size (about 1.3 seats for a 4-seat party), 20,000 times, independently. The threshold is 3.25% of valid votes, which is 4.06 seats' worth once typical wasted votes are taken out: a party polled at exactly 4 is a coin flip, as in past elections. A 0 in a poll counts as a reading just under the line, not as no support. Seats go by D'Hondt among the parties that pass; surplus agreements are ignored. "Markets" is the Polymarket threshold market where one exists.
Each of the 3 parties closest to the threshold can pass or miss, which makes 8 combinations. Each chart shows where the Netanyahu bloc lands in the draws that fell into one combination, coloured by who reaches 61 there. Ordered from the most likely combination to the least.
In none of the 8 combinations is the Netanyahu bloc the favourite to reach 61. Its best case is 6%, when Amcha Yisrael passes and HaMiluimnikim and Ra'am miss. A Knesset where neither side reaches 61 is most likely (98%) when all of them pass.
At poll averages: Opposition 55 · Arab parties 13 · Netanyahu bloc 52
At poll averages: Opposition 55 · Arab parties 13 · Netanyahu bloc 52
At poll averages: Opposition 54 · Arab parties 12 · Unaligned 4 · Netanyahu bloc 50
At poll averages: Opposition 57 · Arab parties 13 · Netanyahu bloc 50
5 further combinations, at or under 15% each and 41% together, are not charted.
The chances and the charts come from the same 20,000 draws as the table above, so every other party moves too; "at poll averages" is the seat split with only the listed parties forced in or out. Each side is counted on its own seats. Ra'am and HaReshima HaMeshutefet are counted together as the Arab parties, toward neither side's 61, here and in the poll rows alike. Errors are drawn independently per party: a polling miss that hits a whole bloc is not modelled, so the side behind in the polls is understated here.
You are welcome to quote, chart and republish the analysis on this page. Please credit SymbioLAB Advisory as the source.
Archive: Previous report (11 October 2026)