47%Eizenkot, -4.9 pts vs 7-day average
Eizenkot leads. Netanyahu is at 31% (+2 this week). Bennett 15%.
SymbioLAB Resources · Prediction market intelligence
Israel Election Tracker
What real-money prediction markets imply about Israel's 27 October 2026 election, the race for Prime Minister and the next government, compared with the TV polls.
Who will be Prime Minister?
New Prime MinisterNetanyahu stays
Eizenkot47% -6.2leading challenger
Bennett 15%
Lieberman 4%Netanyahu31% +2incumbent
The needle is the market's implied chance that Netanyahu is the next Prime Minister (31%); dashed: 7 days ago (29%). Left of the needle, the challengers and their own odds.
Knesset seat projection
52Opposition
Yashar 23Together 12The Democrats 9Yisrael Beiteinu 8
13Arab parties
Joint List 8Ra'am 5
55Netanyahu bloc
Likud 24Shas 8UTJ 8Otzma Yehudit 7RZP-Zehut 5Amcha Yisrael 3
Expected seats from each party's Polymarket seat markets, rounded to whole seats. 61 seats make a majority. Grey: seats not covered by any party market. The rounded totals exceeded 120 (each market carries its own overround), so they are scaled to 120.
Total bet on Israel's election$41,714,927Across 43 Polymarket election markets. $1.1M traded in the last 24h on the PM race alone.
Next Prime Minister
$40.8M
Largest party
$453K
Likud seats
$233K
Trump endorsement
$51K
Other 39 markets
$162K
Daily brief
30 September 2026 · template briefYashar is favored to finish first at 59%, and Eizenkot leads the race for Prime Minister at 47% (-6.2 pts this week).
59%Yashar to finish first (Likud 42%)
Expected seats: Likud 23.9, Yashar 22.8. Traders give 94% that Likud falls below its current 32 seats.
+1.4seats: markets vs poll average on Likud
Markets are more bullish on Likud than the TV polls: 23.9 expected seats against a poll average of 22.5 (19.7 without Ch. 14).
$1.3Mtop holders against Netanyahu
Largest position this week: "Outlandish-Boxspring" put about $158K on Yes in "Netanyahu next PM" across 6 trades; the market prices Yes at 31%.
69%Together, the most likely coalition member
Biggest coalition moves: Amcha Yisrael +29.5 pts to 45%, Yisrael Beiteinu +27 pts to 42%. Thin market ($7K traded), so read as direction.
75%vote held on 27 October (-22.9)
Reservists rose +20.5 pts to 48% to pass the threshold. A hung parliament is priced at 41%.
For journalists and news outlets
You are welcome to quote, chart and republish the analysis on this page. Please credit SymbioLAB Advisory as the source.
Source: SymbioLAB Advisory, based on Polymarket data
Next PM favorite47%Eizenkot, -6.2 pts this week
Netanyahu out by end-202650%-1 pts this week
Election on schedule75%27 October 2026
Days to election27Election day 27 Oct
Today vs the 7-day average
Grey band: lowest to highest price over the last 7 days. Line: 7-day average. Dot: today. A dot far from the line means sentiment is shifting.
Eizenkot next PM47% -4.9
avg 51.5%
Netanyahu next PM31% +1.1
avg 29.4%
Bennett next PM15% +2.9
avg 11.6%
Lieberman next PM4% +0.9
avg 2.7%
Winter next PM1% -0.2
avg 1.3%
Who will be the next Prime Minister?
Implied probability. Right column: change over 7 days, in percentage points. $40.8M traded, $1.1M in the last 24h.
Gadi Eizenkot
47%-6.2
Benjamin Netanyahu
31%+2
Naftali Bennett
15%+4
Avigdor Lieberman
4%+1.4
Ofer Winter
1%-0.5
Itamar Ben Gvir
0.4%-0.2
Seat projection
Expected Knesset seats, derived from each party's seat-range markets. Bars show the probability of each range; the darker bar is the most likely range.
Likud23.9
<2020-2425-2930-3435+
Yashar22.8
<2020-2122-2324-2526-2728-2930+
Together
thin market12.0
thin market
<88-1011-1314-1617-1920+
The Democrats
thin market9.6
thin market
<88-910-1112-1314+
Shas8.6
<66-78-910-1112+
Yisrael Beiteinu
thin market7.8
thin market
<66-78-910-1112+
UTJ7.7
<77-89-1011+
Joint List
thin market7.6
thin market
<66-78-910-1112+
Otzma Yehudit7.6
<44-56-78-910+
RZP-Zehut5.2
<44-56-78-910+
Ra'am5.0
<445678+
Amcha Yisrael2.9
<44-67-910+
121 expected seats across 12 parties with seat markets (of 120)Striped: seats not covered by any party's seat market.
Election and government
| Question | Odds | 7d |
|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out as PM by end of 2026 | 50% | -1 |
| Netanyahu drops out of the race by 30 Sep | 0.3% | -0.1 |
| Trump endorses no party | 72% | +10 |
| Trump endorses Likud | 27% | -3.5 |
| Likud wins fewer than 32 seats | 94% | +1.5 |
| Election held on schedule (27 Oct) | 75% | -22.9 |
| Hung parliament (new election before a government forms) | 41% | +4 |
| Sami Abu Shehadeh effectively banned from running | 72% | - |
| Confidence vote held in the Knesset by 31 Dec | 52% | +3.5 |
| New government wins a confidence vote by 31 Dec | 42% | -6.5 |
| Joint List effectively banned from running | 4% | - |
| Ofer Cassif effectively banned from running | 10% | - |
Which party finishes first?
Largest party in the Knesset. Right column: 7-day change. $453K traded.
Yashar
59%-3.5
Likud
42%+4
Together
0.4%-0.1
Threshold watch
Chance each party wins at least one seat (passes the 3.25% threshold). Thin market: $7K traded in total.
Ra'am
93%+3.7
RZP-Zehut
88%-1
Amcha Yisrael
64%+1
Reservists
48%+20.5
Blue & White
7%+2
Biggest movers this week
Largest 7-day swings. Thin markets flagged: a few thousand dollars can move them.
| Amcha Yisrael in next government thin market 15% → 45% | +29.5 |
| Yisrael Beiteinu in next government thin market 15% → 42% | +27 |
| Yashar wins <20 seats thin market 8% → 31% | +23.1 |
| Election held on schedule (27 Oct) 97% → 75% | -22.9 |
| Reservists win a seat thin market 28% → 48% | +20.5 |
| Otzma Yehudit <4.5% of the vote thin market 32% → 15% | -16.5 |
| The Democrats in next government thin market 61% → 45% | -15.5 |
| Reservists 3.25-3.75% of the vote thin market 5% → 20% | +15 |
| Shas in next government thin market 50% → 36% | -14.5 |
Polls vs markets: seats per party
Latest seat polls from the four main TV channels, their average, and what Polymarket implies. Gap = markets minus poll average.
| Party | Kan 1127.9 | N1222.9 | Ch. 1323.9 | Ch. 1428.9 | Poll avg | Markets | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yashar (Eizenkot) | 23 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 22.3 | 22.8 | +0.6 |
| Likud | 21 | 20 | 18 | 31 | 22.5 (19.7) | 23.9 | +1.4 |
| Together (Bennett) | 11 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 11.0 | 12.0 | +1 |
| Democrats | 9 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 9.5 | 9.6 | +0.1 |
| Yisrael Beiteinu | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 8.0 | 7.8 | -0.2 |
| Shas | - | 7 | 7 | 10 | 8.0 | 8.6 | +0.6 |
| UTJ | - | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8.0 | 7.7 | -0.3 |
| Joint List | - | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7.3 | 7.6 | +0.3 |
| Otzma Yehudit | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6.8 | 7.6 | +0.8 |
| Religious Zionism | 6 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6.0 | 5.2 | -0.8 |
| Ra'am | - | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 |
| Amcha Yisrael (Winter) | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 3.3 | 2.9 | -0.4 |
| Reservists (Hendel) | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3.0 | - | - |
| Netanyahu bloc | 52 | 50 | 51 | 63 | 54.0 | - | |
| Eizenkot-led opposition | 52 | 54 | 52 | 45 | 50.8 | - | |
| Arab parties | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12.3 | - | |
| Reservists (unaligned) | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3.0 | - |
A dash means the outlet did not publish a figure for that party; 0 means it had the party below the threshold. When one outlet is 5 or more seats away from the other three, the average without it is shown in brackets.
Who will sit in the next government?
Chance each party is part of the next coalition. Thin market ($7K traded), so treat swings with care.
Together
69%+3
Yashar
60%-9
The Democrats
45%-15.5
Amcha Yisrael
45%+29.5
Yisrael Beiteinu
42%+27
Likud
40%+2
Shas
36%-14.5
Reservists
36%+8.5
UTJ
33%+4
RZP-Zehut
29%-0.5
Otzma Yehudit
27%+5.5
Ra'am
15%-4.5
Joint List
9%+2.5
Noam
6%-7
Blue & White
6%-0.5
Whale watch
Largest recent trades of $10,000+ in the Prime Minister markets and other markets with $50K+ traded. Wallets are anonymous; we report patterns, never identities. Positions priced at 95 cents or more are left out as near-certainties.
One wallet, one thesis. Trader "Outlandish-Boxspring" put about $158K on YES in "Netanyahu next PM" across 6 trades. Also about $20K on NO in "Eizenkot next PM". It runs against the market, which prices Yes at 31%.
Largest open positions
Who holds the most right now. Value at today's price; payout is what the position pays if it resolves their way.
| Trader | Market | Side | Value now | Pays if right |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Bennett next PM | NO | $334K | $391K |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Netanyahu next PM | NO | $271K | $391K |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Eizenkot next PM | NO | $208K | $391K |
| True-Grandparent | Netanyahu next PM | NO | $195K | $281K |
| Yellow-Dress-Ballet | Netanyahu next PM | NO | $195K | $280K |
| Outlandish-Boxspring | Netanyahu next PM | YES | $145K | $476K |
| Satisfied-Thunderhead | Netanyahu next PM | NO | $127K | $183K |
| Wobbly-Pants | Netanyahu next PM | NO | $81K | $117K |
| Glistening-Touch | Netanyahu next PM | YES | $77K | $254K |
| Bulky-Antler | Netanyahu next PM | NO | $62K | $89K |
| Same-Kidney | Netanyahu next PM | NO | $48K | $70K |
| Vague-Speech | Bennett next PM | NO | $44K | $51K |
Top holders only, by side (value now)
Against Netanyahu
$1291K
For Netanyahu
$510K
Against Bennett
$466K
Against Eizenkot
$313K
For Eizenkot
$180K
For Netanyahu out as PM by end of 2026
$99K
Recent $10K+ trades
| Trader | Market | Side | Price | USD | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outlandish-Boxspring 0x389d…5866 | Netanyahu next PM | YES | 39.0¢ | $21,404 | 29 Sept |
| Outlandish-Boxspring 0x389d…5866 | Netanyahu next PM | YES | 35.0¢ | $33,596 | 29 Sept |
| Harsh-Macro 0x511f…cbe1 | Bennett next PM | NO | 88.0¢ | $12,046 | 29 Sept |
| Outlandish-Boxspring 0x389d…5866 | Netanyahu next PM | YES | 31.0¢ | $41,641 | 29 Sept |
| Outlandish-Boxspring 0x389d…5866 | Netanyahu next PM | YES | 56.0¢ | $28,045 | 29 Sept |
| Outlandish-Boxspring 0x389d…5866 | Netanyahu next PM | YES | 33.0¢ | $21,310 | 29 Sept |
| Limping-Squirrel 0xab41…fe89 | Netanyahu next PM | YES | 31.0¢ | $15,976 | 29 Sept |
| Outlandish-Boxspring 0x389d…5866 | Eizenkot next PM | NO | 51.0¢ | $10,000 | 28 Sept |
| Outlandish-Boxspring 0x389d…5866 | Eizenkot next PM | NO | 50.0¢ | $10,000 | 28 Sept |
| Vague-Speech 0x88e2…7489 | Likud wins 30-34 seats | NO | 89.0¢ | $12,943 | 28 Sept |
| Outlandish-Boxspring 0x389d…5866 | Netanyahu next PM | YES | 29.0¢ | $11,914 | 28 Sept |
| Hidden-Roadway 0xd576…d5e3 | Bennett next PM | NO sold | 87.0¢ | $11,275 | 27 Sept |
Source
Live odds, volumes and trades from Polymarket's public data, taken once a day at 06:45 Israel time. Each price is the market's implied probability of Yes.
Seat math
Expected seats = probability-weighted midpoint of each seat range, after removing the market's overround. An open-ended range is given the width of its neighbours. Ranges below the 4-seat threshold count as zero.
Limits
Many Israel markets are thin and traded mostly by non-Israelis. Treat odds as one lens alongside polls, not as a forecast. Events tagged to the election but about other topics (for example a ceasefire) are not counted.