{"ok":true,"reportDate":"2026-10-26","updatedAt":"2026-10-27T00:20:04.111+00:00","payload":{"suez":{"key":"suez","avg7":44.3,"label":"Suez Canal","latest":{"date":"2026-10-18","total":43,"tanker":15,"dryBulk":10,"container":15},"series":[{"date":"2026-09-04","total":56,"tanker":14},{"date":"2026-09-05","total":42,"tanker":19},{"date":"2026-09-06","total":30,"tanker":16},{"date":"2026-09-07","total":39,"tanker":20},{"date":"2026-09-08","total":43,"tanker":15},{"date":"2026-09-09","total":37,"tanker":18},{"date":"2026-09-10","total":37,"tanker":13},{"date":"2026-09-11","total":48,"tanker":23},{"date":"2026-09-12","total":40,"tanker":15},{"date":"2026-09-13","total":21,"tanker":7},{"date":"2026-09-14","total":51,"tanker":27},{"date":"2026-09-15","total":32,"tanker":11},{"date":"2026-09-16","total":37,"tanker":12},{"date":"2026-09-17","total":37,"tanker":12},{"date":"2026-09-18","total":51,"tanker":25},{"date":"2026-09-19","total":43,"tanker":13},{"date":"2026-09-20","total":42,"tanker":19},{"date":"2026-09-21","total":38,"tanker":17},{"date":"2026-09-22","total":47,"tanker":20},{"date":"2026-09-23","total":32,"tanker":11},{"date":"2026-09-24","total":41,"tanker":12},{"date":"2026-09-25","total":37,"tanker":16},{"date":"2026-09-26","total":48,"tanker":17},{"date":"2026-09-27","total":37,"tanker":12},{"date":"2026-09-28","total":28,"tanker":9},{"date":"2026-09-29","total":40,"tanker":12},{"date":"2026-09-30","total":45,"tanker":16},{"date":"2026-10-01","total":55,"tanker":24},{"date":"2026-10-02","total":42,"tanker":18},{"date":"2026-10-03","total":46,"tanker":15},{"date":"2026-10-04","total":46,"tanker":15},{"date":"2026-10-05","total":36,"tanker":17},{"date":"2026-10-06","total":48,"tanker":18},{"date":"2026-10-07","total":32,"tanker":15},{"date":"2026-10-08","total":37,"tanker":14},{"date":"2026-10-09","total":55,"tanker":19},{"date":"2026-10-10","total":41,"tanker":16},{"date":"2026-10-11","total":43,"tanker":20},{"date":"2026-10-12","total":50,"tanker":20},{"date":"2026-10-13","total":36,"tanker":12},{"date":"2026-10-14","total":54,"tanker":17},{"date":"2026-10-15","total":42,"tanker":17},{"date":"2026-10-16","total":43,"tanker":16},{"date":"2026-10-17","total":42,"tanker":14},{"date":"2026-10-18","total":43,"tanker":15}],"avg7Prev":41.7,"baseline":60,"pctOfBaseline":74},"brent":{"latest":{"usd":115.22,"date":"2026-10-20"},"series":[{"usd":88.24,"date":"2026-08-25"},{"usd":87.77,"date":"2026-08-26"},{"usd":90.18,"date":"2026-08-27"},{"usd":89.75,"date":"2026-08-28"},{"usd":96.02,"date":"2026-09-01"},{"usd":97.59,"date":"2026-09-02"},{"usd":100.52,"date":"2026-09-03"},{"usd":102.24,"date":"2026-09-04"},{"usd":104.47,"date":"2026-09-07"},{"usd":106.12,"date":"2026-09-08"},{"usd":109.51,"date":"2026-09-09"},{"usd":120.98,"date":"2026-09-10"},{"usd":118.06,"date":"2026-09-11"},{"usd":121.25,"date":"2026-09-14"},{"usd":130.8,"date":"2026-09-15"},{"usd":127.84,"date":"2026-09-16"},{"usd":121.18,"date":"2026-09-17"},{"usd":119.66,"date":"2026-09-18"},{"usd":116.15,"date":"2026-09-21"},{"usd":114.89,"date":"2026-09-22"},{"usd":117.45,"date":"2026-09-23"},{"usd":120.92,"date":"2026-09-24"},{"usd":116.01,"date":"2026-09-25"},{"usd":119.97,"date":"2026-09-28"},{"usd":113.96,"date":"2026-09-29"},{"usd":115.91,"date":"2026-09-30"},{"usd":114.82,"date":"2026-10-01"},{"usd":135.51,"date":"2026-10-02"},{"usd":125.51,"date":"2026-10-05"},{"usd":125.44,"date":"2026-10-06"},{"usd":126,"date":"2026-10-07"},{"usd":130.18,"date":"2026-10-08"},{"usd":130.03,"date":"2026-10-09"},{"usd":129.95,"date":"2026-10-12"},{"usd":125.78,"date":"2026-10-13"},{"usd":126.55,"date":"2026-10-14"},{"usd":126.35,"date":"2026-10-15"},{"usd":119.33,"date":"2026-10-16"},{"usd":118.82,"date":"2026-10-19"},{"usd":115.22,"date":"2026-10-20"}],"ytdAvg":95.3,"high52w":138.21,"change7dPct":-8.4,"change30dPct":-3.7},"stale":["airspace"],"hormuz":{"key":"hormuz","avg7":3.7,"label":"Strait of Hormuz","latest":{"date":"2026-10-18","total":4,"tanker":2,"dryBulk":2,"container":0},"series":[{"date":"2026-09-04","total":2,"tanker":0},{"date":"2026-09-05","total":2,"tanker":0},{"date":"2026-09-06","total":6,"tanker":2},{"date":"2026-09-07","total":5,"tanker":2},{"date":"2026-09-08","total":6,"tanker":2},{"date":"2026-09-09","total":3,"tanker":0},{"date":"2026-09-10","total":5,"tanker":1},{"date":"2026-09-11","total":8,"tanker":3},{"date":"2026-09-12","total":2,"tanker":1},{"date":"2026-09-13","total":8,"tanker":1},{"date":"2026-09-14","total":2,"tanker":0},{"date":"2026-09-15","total":2,"tanker":1},{"date":"2026-09-16","total":1,"tanker":0},{"date":"2026-09-17","total":3,"tanker":0},{"date":"2026-09-18","total":7,"tanker":2},{"date":"2026-09-19","total":6,"tanker":1},{"date":"2026-09-20","total":1,"tanker":0},{"date":"2026-09-21","total":2,"tanker":0},{"date":"2026-09-22","total":3,"tanker":1},{"date":"2026-09-23","total":4,"tanker":1},{"date":"2026-09-24","total":5,"tanker":3},{"date":"2026-09-25","total":3,"tanker":2},{"date":"2026-09-26","total":4,"tanker":1},{"date":"2026-09-27","total":1,"tanker":1},{"date":"2026-09-28","total":4,"tanker":2},{"date":"2026-09-29","total":1,"tanker":0},{"date":"2026-09-30","total":4,"tanker":4},{"date":"2026-10-01","total":0,"tanker":0},{"date":"2026-10-02","total":4,"tanker":0},{"date":"2026-10-03","total":2,"tanker":0},{"date":"2026-10-04","total":4,"tanker":0},{"date":"2026-10-05","total":8,"tanker":1},{"date":"2026-10-06","total":2,"tanker":1},{"date":"2026-10-07","total":6,"tanker":1},{"date":"2026-10-08","total":4,"tanker":0},{"date":"2026-10-09","total":3,"tanker":0},{"date":"2026-10-10","total":4,"tanker":0},{"date":"2026-10-11","total":2,"tanker":1},{"date":"2026-10-12","total":3,"tanker":0},{"date":"2026-10-13","total":7,"tanker":0},{"date":"2026-10-14","total":3,"tanker":0},{"date":"2026-10-15","total":2,"tanker":1},{"date":"2026-10-16","total":7,"tanker":1},{"date":"2026-10-17","total":0,"tanker":0},{"date":"2026-10-18","total":4,"tanker":2}],"avg7Prev":4.1,"baseline":85,"pctOfBaseline":4},"warDay":242,"markets":{"links":{"cables":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-damage-undersea-internet-cables-byptptpt","ilIran":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963","usIran":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt","midterms":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-the-midterms","hormuzDeal":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-hormuz-agreement-byptptpt-20260803235957575","blockadeEnd":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080","hormuzNormal":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","babMandebClosed":"https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by"},"cables":[{"p":4.4,"date":"2026-10-31","label":"Oct 31","volume":35231.682078,"weekChange":0.8},{"p":24.5,"date":"2026-12-31","label":"Dec 31","volume":26916.715695,"weekChange":13}],"errors":[],"ilIran":{"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963","curve":[{"p":99.5,"date":"2026-10-24","label":"Oct 24","volume":270913.182829,"weekChange":null},{"p":97.3,"date":"2026-10-27","label":"Oct 27","volume":301093.56313299993,"weekChange":null},{"p":93.5,"date":"2026-10-31","label":"Oct 31","volume":3382164.2981640003,"weekChange":8},{"p":65.5,"date":"2026-11-15","label":"Nov 15","volume":385496.00183200004,"weekChange":-3},{"p":51.5,"date":"2026-11-30","label":"Nov 30","volume":669079.0438669999,"weekChange":-11},{"p":35.5,"date":"2026-12-31","label":"Dec 31","volume":1256149.816149,"weekChange":-8}],"volume":39563790.563548006},"usIran":{"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt","curve":[{"p":99.6,"date":"2026-10-24","label":"Oct 24","volume":1785320.954171,"weekChange":13.1},{"p":95.9,"date":"2026-10-28","label":"Oct 28","volume":1259771.974673,"weekChange":13.4},{"p":89.5,"date":"2026-10-31","label":"Oct 31","volume":6905312.28805,"weekChange":12},{"p":65.5,"date":"2026-11-08","label":"Nov 8","volume":178668.413512,"weekChange":-0.5},{"p":49.5,"date":"2026-11-15","label":"Nov 15","volume":544146.46705,"weekChange":-6},{"p":43,"date":"2026-11-22","label":"Nov 22","volume":118083.26576800001,"weekChange":-6},{"p":38.5,"date":"2026-11-30","label":"Nov 30","volume":915824.056199,"weekChange":-4},{"p":29.5,"date":"2026-12-31","label":"Dec 31","volume":776811.293846,"weekChange":-1}],"volume":27186475.527955},"takenAt":"2026-10-27T00:20:04.111Z","headline":{"ilYearEnd":35.5,"usYearEnd":29.5,"usThroughMidterms":84.5,"hormuzNormalYearEnd":11.5},"midterms":{"p":84.5,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-the-midterms","label":"US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?","volume":1243931.621648,"weekChange":8},"hormuzDeal":[{"p":4.8,"date":"2026-10-31","label":"Oct 31","volume":387718.170486,"weekChange":-5.8},{"p":6.2,"date":"2026-11-02","label":"Nov 2","volume":237576.376958,"weekChange":-6.9},{"p":21.5,"date":"2026-11-30","label":"Nov 30","volume":105043.880884,"weekChange":-4},{"p":31.5,"date":"2027-12-31","label":"Dec 31","volume":200823.08526599998,"weekChange":-0.5}],"blockadeEnd":[{"p":4.5,"date":"2026-10-31","label":"Oct 31","volume":6200020.508214001,"weekChange":-6},{"p":24,"date":"2026-11-30","label":"Nov 30","volume":367392.26823,"weekChange":0.5},{"p":59.5,"date":"2027-03-31","label":"Mar 31","volume":170305.78740499998,"weekChange":-1.5},{"p":36.4,"date":"2027-12-31","label":"Dec 31","volume":4125756.6280389996,"weekChange":-1}],"hormuzNormal":{"p":11.5,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","label":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","volume":15653420.312338,"weekChange":-1},"babMandebClosed":[{"p":1.1,"date":"2026-10-31","label":"Oct 31","volume":1613132.410966,"weekChange":-1.1},{"p":7.5,"date":"2026-11-30","label":"Nov 30","volume":133644.611645,"weekChange":-1},{"p":15,"date":"2027-12-31","label":"Dec 31","volume":1928072.4157270002,"weekChange":-1.5}]},"takenAt":"2026-10-27T00:20:04.111Z","airspace":{"regions":{"gulf":{"label":"Gulf states (Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, Oman, eastern Saudi)","usual":null,"latest":null,"series":[],"vsUsualPct":null},"iran":{"label":"Iran","usual":null,"latest":null,"series":[],"vsUsualPct":null},"israel":{"label":"Israel","usual":null,"latest":null,"series":[],"vsUsualPct":null},"red_sea":{"label":"Southern Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb","usual":null,"latest":null,"series":[],"vsUsualPct":null}}},"babMandeb":{"key":"bab_el_mandeb","avg7":26.4,"label":"Bab el-Mandeb","latest":{"date":"2026-10-18","total":32,"tanker":17,"dryBulk":6,"container":4},"series":[{"date":"2026-09-04","total":32,"tanker":11},{"date":"2026-09-05","total":18,"tanker":2},{"date":"2026-09-06","total":23,"tanker":6},{"date":"2026-09-07","total":34,"tanker":13},{"date":"2026-09-08","total":22,"tanker":7},{"date":"2026-09-09","total":35,"tanker":10},{"date":"2026-09-10","total":27,"tanker":7},{"date":"2026-09-11","total":22,"tanker":6},{"date":"2026-09-12","total":20,"tanker":5},{"date":"2026-09-13","total":31,"tanker":9},{"date":"2026-09-14","total":25,"tanker":5},{"date":"2026-09-15","total":24,"tanker":9},{"date":"2026-09-16","total":19,"tanker":6},{"date":"2026-09-17","total":27,"tanker":5},{"date":"2026-09-18","total":27,"tanker":6},{"date":"2026-09-19","total":25,"tanker":10},{"date":"2026-09-20","total":26,"tanker":5},{"date":"2026-09-21","total":27,"tanker":8},{"date":"2026-09-22","total":22,"tanker":9},{"date":"2026-09-23","total":25,"tanker":8},{"date":"2026-09-24","total":31,"tanker":8},{"date":"2026-09-25","total":29,"tanker":10},{"date":"2026-09-26","total":29,"tanker":12},{"date":"2026-09-27","total":27,"tanker":11},{"date":"2026-09-28","total":30,"tanker":9},{"date":"2026-09-29","total":37,"tanker":12},{"date":"2026-09-30","total":22,"tanker":7},{"date":"2026-10-01","total":28,"tanker":8},{"date":"2026-10-02","total":26,"tanker":8},{"date":"2026-10-03","total":30,"tanker":8},{"date":"2026-10-04","total":34,"tanker":11},{"date":"2026-10-05","total":28,"tanker":13},{"date":"2026-10-06","total":33,"tanker":8},{"date":"2026-10-07","total":35,"tanker":12},{"date":"2026-10-08","total":25,"tanker":9},{"date":"2026-10-09","total":24,"tanker":6},{"date":"2026-10-10","total":22,"tanker":5},{"date":"2026-10-11","total":31,"tanker":7},{"date":"2026-10-12","total":34,"tanker":12},{"date":"2026-10-13","total":17,"tanker":6},{"date":"2026-10-14","total":24,"tanker":10},{"date":"2026-10-15","total":24,"tanker":7},{"date":"2026-10-16","total":25,"tanker":11},{"date":"2026-10-17","total":29,"tanker":7},{"date":"2026-10-18","total":32,"tanker":17}],"avg7Prev":28.3,"baseline":60,"pctOfBaseline":44},"manualAsOf":"2026-10-26","reportDate":"2026-10-26","marketsLive":{"errors":[],"events":{"cables":{"key":"cables","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-damage-undersea-internet-cables-byptptpt","slug":"will-iran-damage-undersea-internet-cables-byptptpt","title":"Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?","volume":62148.397773,"markets":[{"p":4.4,"date":"2026-10-31","slug":"will-iran-sabotage-undersea-internet-cables-by-october-31","label":"Oct 31","closed":false,"volume":35231.682078,"dayChange":-1,"volume24h":1094.67,"weekChange":0.8},{"p":24.5,"date":"2026-12-31","slug":"will-iran-sabotage-undersea-internet-cables-by-december-31","label":"Dec 31","closed":false,"volume":26916.715695,"dayChange":4.5,"volume24h":1746.3922040000002,"weekChange":13}],"volume24h":2841.0622040000003},"ilIran":{"key":"ilIran","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963","title":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?","volume":39563790.563548006,"markets":[{"p":100,"date":"2026-07-18","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-july-18-20260716224448964","label":"Jul 18","closed":true,"volume":245772.579718,"dayChange":0.3,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":null},{"p":100,"date":"2026-07-20","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-july-20-20260716224448965","label":"Jul 20","closed":true,"volume":351226.308483,"dayChange":0.1,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":null},{"p":100,"date":"2026-07-22","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-july-22-20260716224448966","label":"Jul 22","closed":true,"volume":953283.7089009929,"dayChange":0.5,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":24},{"p":100,"date":"2026-07-23","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-july-23","label":"Jul 23","closed":true,"volume":279287.41751400015,"dayChange":null,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":null},{"p":100,"date":"2026-07-24","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-july-24","label":"Jul 24","closed":true,"volume":772686.901455,"dayChange":null,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":null},{"p":100,"date":"2026-07-25","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-july-25-20260716224448967-454","label":"Jul 25","closed":true,"volume":2652891.5877060024,"dayChange":0.1,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":24.5},{"p":100,"date":"2026-07-26","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-july-26","label":"Jul 26","closed":true,"volume":1140801.1763149993,"dayChange":null,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":null},{"p":100,"date":"2026-07-27","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-july-27","label":"Jul 27","closed":true,"volume":538713.5927830001,"dayChange":null,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":null},{"p":100,"date":"2026-07-28","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-july-28","label":"Jul 28","closed":true,"volume":392797.3528460002,"dayChange":null,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":28.5},{"p":100,"date":"2026-07-29","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-july-29","label":"Jul 29","closed":true,"volume":648412.9901919998,"dayChange":0.1,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":9},{"p":100,"date":"2026-07-30","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-july-30","label":"Jul 30","closed":true,"volume":553197.1904259999,"dayChange":null,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":8},{"p":100,"date":"2026-07-31","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-july-31-20260716224448968-384-155-519-798-243","label":"Jul 31","closed":true,"volume":3394417.890313,"dayChange":0.1,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":7.5},{"p":100,"date":"2026-08-01","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-august-1","label":"Aug 1","closed":true,"volume":1393397.237344999,"dayChange":null,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":null},{"p":100,"date":"2026-08-02","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-august-2-20260727170555149","label":"Aug 2","closed":true,"volume":2959160.8246000037,"dayChange":0.1,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":21},{"p":100,"date":"2026-08-03","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-august-3","label":"Aug 3","closed":true,"volume":1143344.750184001,"dayChange":null,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":null},{"p":100,"date":"2026-08-04","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-august-4","label":"Aug 4","closed":true,"volume":861734.5734409998,"dayChange":null,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":38},{"p":100,"date":"2026-08-09","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-august-9-20260727170733638","label":"Aug 9","closed":true,"volume":2357474.6930570006,"dayChange":null,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":3.4},{"p":100,"date":"2026-08-15","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-august-15-20260716224448969-246-815-987-693","label":"Aug 15","closed":true,"volume":2534770.3530070027,"dayChange":null,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":2.9},{"p":100,"date":"2026-08-31","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-august-31-20260716224448970-754-896-823","label":"Aug 31","closed":true,"volume":3333310.6017099996,"dayChange":null,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":1.5},{"p":100,"date":"2026-09-15","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-september-15","label":"Sep 15","closed":true,"volume":163166.12795400005,"dayChange":1,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":null},{"p":100,"date":"2026-09-30","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-september-30","label":"Sep 30","closed":true,"volume":3337162.274535002,"dayChange":1.1,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":5.5},{"p":100,"date":"2026-10-09","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-9","label":"Oct 9","closed":true,"volume":60056.01502899999,"dayChange":1.3,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":null},{"p":100,"date":"2026-10-15","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","label":"Oct 15","closed":true,"volume":955124.9953140004,"dayChange":1.6,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":5.5},{"p":100,"date":"2026-10-18","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-18","label":"Oct 18","closed":true,"volume":804810.966638,"dayChange":1.8,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":null},{"p":100,"date":"2026-10-21","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-21","label":"Oct 21","closed":true,"volume":1471892.5481079998,"dayChange":1.2,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":6.3},{"p":99.5,"date":"2026-10-24","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-24","label":"Oct 24","closed":false,"volume":270913.182829,"dayChange":-0.1,"volume24h":30503.915845,"weekChange":null},{"p":97.3,"date":"2026-10-27","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-27","label":"Oct 27","closed":false,"volume":301093.56313299993,"dayChange":5.3,"volume24h":102749.67805699998,"weekChange":null},{"p":93.5,"date":"2026-10-31","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-31","label":"Oct 31","closed":false,"volume":3382164.2981640003,"dayChange":8,"volume24h":193982.804899,"weekChange":8},{"p":65.5,"date":"2026-11-15","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-15","label":"Nov 15","closed":false,"volume":385496.00183200004,"dayChange":10,"volume24h":20917.312336,"weekChange":-3},{"p":51.5,"date":"2026-11-30","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-30","label":"Nov 30","closed":false,"volume":669079.0438669999,"dayChange":11,"volume24h":7944.303819000002,"weekChange":-11},{"p":35.5,"date":"2026-12-31","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-december-31-415","label":"Dec 31","closed":false,"volume":1256149.816149,"dayChange":0.5,"volume24h":27870.779059,"weekChange":-8}],"volume24h":383968.794015},"usIran":{"key":"usIran","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt","slug":"us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt","title":"US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?","volume":27186475.527955,"markets":[{"p":100,"date":"2026-09-20","slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-september-20-20260917","label":"Sep 20","closed":true,"volume":556624.42371,"dayChange":3,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":null},{"p":100,"date":"2026-09-25","slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-september-25-20260917","label":"Sep 25","closed":true,"volume":734156.6500520003,"dayChange":0.7,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":15.5},{"p":100,"date":"2026-09-30","slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-september-30-20260917","label":"Sep 30","closed":true,"volume":2452452.735319999,"dayChange":3.7,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":12.5},{"p":100,"date":"2026-10-05","slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-5","label":"Oct 5","closed":true,"volume":135262.11843500004,"dayChange":null,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":null},{"p":100,"date":"2026-10-07","slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-7","label":"Oct 7","closed":true,"volume":523977.66743899987,"dayChange":null,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":10.5},{"p":100,"date":"2026-10-09","slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-9","label":"Oct 9","closed":true,"volume":344931.64662699995,"dayChange":0.9,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":null},{"p":100,"date":"2026-10-12","slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-12","label":"Oct 12","closed":true,"volume":1988649.8114429999,"dayChange":2.6,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":10.5},{"p":100,"date":"2026-10-15","slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","label":"Oct 15","closed":true,"volume":2116265.9022079995,"dayChange":2.6,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":7.5},{"p":100,"date":"2026-10-16","slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-16","label":"Oct 16","closed":true,"volume":428264.18999399996,"dayChange":1.9,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":null},{"p":100,"date":"2026-10-17","slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-17","label":"Oct 17","closed":true,"volume":902788.036932,"dayChange":4,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":null},{"p":100,"date":"2026-10-18","slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-18","label":"Oct 18","closed":true,"volume":656633.916366,"dayChange":2.6,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":null},{"p":100,"date":"2026-10-22","slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-22","label":"Oct 22","closed":true,"volume":3862529.71616,"dayChange":0.2,"volume24h":136365.551702,"weekChange":6.4},{"p":99.6,"date":"2026-10-24","slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-24","label":"Oct 24","closed":false,"volume":1785320.954171,"dayChange":2,"volume24h":121587.32822900002,"weekChange":13.1},{"p":95.9,"date":"2026-10-28","slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-28","label":"Oct 28","closed":false,"volume":1259771.974673,"dayChange":8.4,"volume24h":190770.081105,"weekChange":13.4},{"p":89.5,"date":"2026-10-31","slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-31-20260917","label":"Oct 31","closed":false,"volume":6905312.28805,"dayChange":8,"volume24h":200180.30795099997,"weekChange":12},{"p":65.5,"date":"2026-11-08","slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-8","label":"Nov 8","closed":false,"volume":178668.413512,"dayChange":2.5,"volume24h":14102.835174,"weekChange":-0.5},{"p":49.5,"date":"2026-11-15","slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-15","label":"Nov 15","closed":false,"volume":544146.46705,"dayChange":1.5,"volume24h":16027.946232999999,"weekChange":-6},{"p":43,"date":"2026-11-22","slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-22","label":"Nov 22","closed":false,"volume":118083.26576800001,"dayChange":5,"volume24h":22535.397876000003,"weekChange":-6},{"p":38.5,"date":"2026-11-30","slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-30-20260918","label":"Nov 30","closed":false,"volume":915824.056199,"dayChange":3,"volume24h":13053.683786,"weekChange":-4},{"p":29.5,"date":"2026-12-31","slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-december-31-20260918","label":"Dec 31","closed":false,"volume":776811.293846,"dayChange":3,"volume24h":9449.991076,"weekChange":-1}],"volume24h":724073.123132},"midterms":{"key":"midterms","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-the-midterms","slug":"us-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-the-midterms","title":"US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?","volume":1243931.621648,"markets":[{"p":84.5,"date":"2026-11-04","slug":"us-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-the-midterms","label":"US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?","closed":false,"volume":1243931.621648,"dayChange":6.5,"volume24h":53228.085855,"weekChange":8}],"volume24h":53228.085855},"hormuzDeal":{"key":"hormuzDeal","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-hormuz-agreement-byptptpt-20260803235957575","slug":"us-iran-hormuz-agreement-byptptpt-20260803235957575","title":"US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?","volume":2601789.224412,"markets":[{"p":0,"date":"2026-08-15","slug":"untitled-market-1-20260803235754057","label":"Aug 15","closed":true,"volume":369093.5469989999,"dayChange":-0.5,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-17.4},{"p":0,"date":"2026-08-31","slug":"us-iran-hormuz-agreement-by-august-31-20260804000051471","label":"Aug 31","closed":true,"volume":366185.769448,"dayChange":-0.3,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-3.8},{"p":0,"date":"2026-09-15","slug":"us-iran-hormuz-agreement-by-september-15","label":"Sep 15","closed":true,"volume":279612.4366239999,"dayChange":-0.2,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-0.8},{"p":0,"date":"2026-09-30","slug":"us-iran-hormuz-agreement-by-september-30","label":"Sep 30","closed":true,"volume":445693.6919,"dayChange":-0.8,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-5.5},{"p":0,"date":"2026-10-07","slug":"us-iran-hormuz-agreement-by-october-7","label":"Oct 7","closed":true,"volume":60200.931255,"dayChange":-0.4,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-2.3},{"p":0,"date":"2026-10-15","slug":"us-iran-hormuz-agreement-by-october-15","label":"Oct 15","closed":true,"volume":149841.33459199997,"dayChange":-0.2,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-6.4},{"p":4.8,"date":"2026-10-31","slug":"us-iran-hormuz-agreement-by-october-31","label":"Oct 31","closed":false,"volume":387718.170486,"dayChange":-1.9,"volume24h":21827.97508,"weekChange":-5.8},{"p":6.2,"date":"2026-11-02","slug":"us-iran-hormuz-agreement-by-november-2","label":"Nov 2","closed":false,"volume":237576.376958,"dayChange":-1.2,"volume24h":4808.1050700000005,"weekChange":-6.9},{"p":21.5,"date":"2026-11-30","slug":"us-iran-hormuz-agreement-by-november-30","label":"Nov 30","closed":false,"volume":105043.880884,"dayChange":-1,"volume24h":7141.777465,"weekChange":-4},{"p":31.5,"date":"2027-12-31","slug":"us-iran-hormuz-agreement-by-december-31","label":"Dec 31","closed":false,"volume":200823.08526599998,"dayChange":-2,"volume24h":11788.959156,"weekChange":-0.5}],"volume24h":45566.816771},"blockadeEnd":{"key":"blockadeEnd","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080","title":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?","volume":42962217.27903,"markets":[{"p":0,"date":"2026-07-14","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-july-14-2026","label":"Jul 14","closed":true,"volume":43360.49355299999,"dayChange":-1.4,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":null},{"p":0,"date":"2026-07-24","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-july-24-2026-20260713152715081-211","label":"Jul 24","closed":true,"volume":351768.86279800045,"dayChange":-1.9,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-7.4},{"p":0,"date":"2026-07-31","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-july-31-2026-20260713152715082-212","label":"Jul 31","closed":true,"volume":1106597.1373619998,"dayChange":-1.4,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-14.4},{"p":0,"date":"2026-08-07","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-7-2026-20260727171523690","label":"Aug 7","closed":true,"volume":2973354.9628629982,"dayChange":-13.1,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-8.9},{"p":0,"date":"2026-08-08","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-8-2026","label":"Aug 8","closed":true,"volume":417211.83984999976,"dayChange":-10.4,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":null},{"p":0,"date":"2026-08-09","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-9-2026","label":"Aug 9","closed":true,"volume":697452.6810580004,"dayChange":-5.4,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":null},{"p":0,"date":"2026-08-10","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-10-2026","label":"Aug 10","closed":true,"volume":543176.4823959997,"dayChange":-0.9,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":null},{"p":0,"date":"2026-08-11","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-11-2026","label":"Aug 11","closed":true,"volume":607660.159317,"dayChange":-0.6,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":null},{"p":0,"date":"2026-08-12","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-12-2026","label":"Aug 12","closed":true,"volume":490307.77881199995,"dayChange":-1.1,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":null},{"p":0,"date":"2026-08-13","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-13-2026","label":"Aug 13","closed":true,"volume":404257.91118700005,"dayChange":-1,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":null},{"p":0,"date":"2026-08-14","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-14-2026","label":"Aug 14","closed":true,"volume":495636.6670349997,"dayChange":-0.7,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-56.4},{"p":0,"date":"2026-08-15","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-15-2026-20260713152715083-347-987-697-628-574-676","label":"Aug 15","closed":true,"volume":3291960.571075001,"dayChange":-0.8,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-26.4},{"p":0,"date":"2026-08-22","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-22-2026","label":"Aug 22","closed":true,"volume":1478691.8690969995,"dayChange":-0.1,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-7.4},{"p":0,"date":"2026-08-31","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-31-2026-20260713152715084-642-513-584-641-939-632-729","label":"Aug 31","closed":true,"volume":4936927.520507002,"dayChange":-0.3,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-3.1},{"p":0,"date":"2026-09-07","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-september-7-2026","label":"Sep 7","closed":true,"volume":1780251.9985849985,"dayChange":-0.5,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-3.2},{"p":0,"date":"2026-09-14","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-september-14-2026","label":"Sep 14","closed":true,"volume":1759862.6388520016,"dayChange":-0.4,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-3.3},{"p":0,"date":"2026-09-21","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-september-21-2026","label":"Sep 21","closed":true,"volume":1462591.6606599998,"dayChange":-0.6,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-5.4},{"p":0,"date":"2026-09-30","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-september-30-2026-20260727171615364-722-649-646-561-213-644-414-831","label":"Sep 30","closed":true,"volume":5588313.455869003,"dayChange":-0.6,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-6.4},{"p":0,"date":"2026-10-15","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","label":"Oct 15","closed":true,"volume":3669357.3962659976,"dayChange":-0.4,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-10.4},{"p":4.5,"date":"2026-10-31","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-31-2026-20260727171711632-895-372-622-413-171-454-592-696","label":"Oct 31","closed":false,"volume":6200020.508214001,"dayChange":-2,"volume24h":174236.171313,"weekChange":-6},{"p":24,"date":"2026-11-30","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-november-30-2026","label":"Nov 30","closed":false,"volume":367392.26823,"dayChange":-0.5,"volume24h":8202.136258999999,"weekChange":0.5},{"p":59.5,"date":"2027-03-31","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-march-31-2027","label":"Mar 31","closed":false,"volume":170305.78740499998,"dayChange":2,"volume24h":6306.1746520000015,"weekChange":-1.5},{"p":36.4,"date":"2027-12-31","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-december-31-2026-20260727171803489-375-949-645-919-269-157-255-857","label":"Dec 31","closed":false,"volume":4125756.6280389996,"dayChange":0.4,"volume24h":118762.09974499998,"weekChange":-1}],"volume24h":307506.581969},"hormuzNormal":{"key":"hormuzNormal","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","volume":15653420.312338,"markets":[{"p":11.5,"date":"2027-01-01","slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","label":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","closed":false,"volume":15653420.312338,"dayChange":null,"volume24h":38858.975414,"weekChange":-1}],"volume24h":38858.975414},"babMandebClosed":{"key":"babMandebClosed","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by","slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by","title":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?","volume":17647182.189900003,"markets":[{"p":0,"date":"2026-03-31","slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-march-31","label":"Mar 31","closed":true,"volume":330325.4789079996,"dayChange":-0.2,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-0.2},{"p":0,"date":"2026-04-30","slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-april-30","label":"Apr 30","closed":true,"volume":1651616.9613379955,"dayChange":null,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-0.6},{"p":0,"date":"2026-05-31","slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-may-31","label":"May 31","closed":true,"volume":1339221.415588001,"dayChange":-0.3,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-1.5},{"p":0,"date":"2026-06-15","slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-june-15","label":"Jun 15","closed":true,"volume":221113.662598,"dayChange":null,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-0.2},{"p":0,"date":"2026-06-22","slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-june-22-183","label":"Jun 22","closed":true,"volume":129291.04577599993,"dayChange":null,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-0.2},{"p":0,"date":"2026-06-30","slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-june-30-571","label":"Jun 30","closed":true,"volume":1218248.1640610006,"dayChange":0,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-0.2},{"p":0,"date":"2026-07-31","slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-july-31","label":"Jul 31","closed":true,"volume":1443324.3871109998,"dayChange":null,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-0.3},{"p":0,"date":"2026-08-31","slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-august-31","label":"Aug 31","closed":true,"volume":2558815.7553530005,"dayChange":-0.1,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-0.1},{"p":0,"date":"2026-09-15","slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-september-15","label":"Sep 15","closed":true,"volume":831135.9779800001,"dayChange":null,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":0},{"p":0,"date":"2026-09-30","slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-september-30-999-671-939","label":"Sep 30","closed":true,"volume":4249239.9028490065,"dayChange":null,"volume24h":0,"weekChange":-0.1},{"p":1.1,"date":"2026-10-31","slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-october-31","label":"Oct 31","closed":false,"volume":1613132.410966,"dayChange":-0.1,"volume24h":17366.815334,"weekChange":-1.1},{"p":7.5,"date":"2026-11-30","slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-november-30","label":"Nov 30","closed":false,"volume":133644.611645,"dayChange":-0.5,"volume24h":545.8282409999999,"weekChange":-1},{"p":15,"date":"2027-12-31","slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-december-31-983-117-222-252","label":"Dec 31","closed":false,"volume":1928072.4157270002,"dayChange":-3.5,"volume24h":14246.785284999998,"weekChange":-1.5}],"volume24h":32159.428859999996}},"takenAt":"2026-10-27T00:20:04.111Z"}},"brief":{"en":"<strong>On day 241, the war has settled into a costly stalemate at sea.</strong> Lloyd's List and UKMTO count 28+ attacks in the first half of October, a record month. War-risk premiums run 6 to 10% of hull value per transit, against 0.25% before the war. The Pentagon reports 21 US service members killed and 865 wounded.\n\n<strong>The live feeds show Hormuz still close to shut.</strong> PortWatch averaged 3.7 transits a day in the week to 18 October, down from 4.1 the week before and about 4% of the pre-war baseline of 85. JMIC puts escorted traffic near 34 a day, with 492 ships waiting off Fujairah and Khor Fakkan. Brent stood at $115.22 on 20 October, down 8.4% on the week. Our airspace feed returned no reading this week.\n\n<strong>November is a cliff, not a resolution.</strong> Prediction markets give the US truce 84% odds of holding through the 3 November midterms, but only 29.5% of still holding on 31 December. The Israel and Iran truce stands at 38.5%, and normal Hormuz traffic by year end at 11.5%. We advise planning corridors for continued disruption into 2027.","he":"<strong>ביום 241, המלחמה התקבעה לקיפאון יקר בים.</strong> Lloyd's List ו־UKMTO מונים 28+ תקיפות במחצית הראשונה של אוקטובר, חודש שיא. פרמיות סיכון המלחמה עומדות על 6 עד 10% משווי כלי השיט לכל מעבר, לעומת 0.25% לפני המלחמה. הפנטגון מדווח על 21 חיילים אמריקאים הרוגים ו־865 פצועים.\n\n<strong>הנתונים החיים מראים שהורמוז עדיין כמעט סגור.</strong> לפי PortWatch, הממוצע עמד על 3.7 מעברים ביום בשבוע שהסתיים ביום 18 באוקטובר, לעומת 4.1 בשבוע הקודם, כ־4% מבסיס של 85 לפני המלחמה. JMIC מעריך תנועה מלווה של כ־34 ביום, ו־492 ספינות ממתינות מול פוג'יירה וחור פכאן. ברנט עמד על $115.22 ביום 20 באוקטובר, ירידה של 8.4% בשבוע. מקור נתוני המרחב האווירי שלנו לא החזיר קריאה השבוע.\n\n<strong>נובמבר הוא צוק, לא הכרעה.</strong> שווקי התחזיות נותנים להפוגה האמריקאית סיכוי של 84% להחזיק עד הבחירות ביום 3 בנובמבר, אך רק 29.5% להחזיק ביום 31 בדצמבר. ההפוגה בין ישראל לאיראן עומדת על 38.5%, ותנועה רגילה בהורמוז עד סוף השנה על 11.5%. אנו ממליצים לתכנן את המסדרונות להמשך שיבושים גם בשנת 2027."},"credit":"SymbioLab Advisory, symbiolab.ai/IranWarMonitor"}